KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Sep 08 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

24%

16%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

HRESNO 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.00u · HRES −55.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	77.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	45.2%	—	—	64.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	34.3%	12.2%	—	28.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	20.4%	79.0%	26.6%	—	33.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	5.8%	82.6%	—	34.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	3.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	3.1%	11.5%	—	18.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	5.5%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	12.0%	36.1%	33.0%	—	27.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	4.1%	12.8%	—	—	14.7%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	4.5%	43.0%	78.6%	—	13.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	18.4%	72.1%	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	0.3%	27.4%	20.3%	—	10.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	1.8%	34.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	16.5%	2.0%	16.5%	—	4.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	7.6%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.2%	1.3%	1.6%	16.3%	1.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.1%	1.9%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	22.1%	1.1%	0.0%	5.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	0.8%	12.3%	0.6%	—	5.4%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	3.5%	5.4%	3.8%	—	16.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	26.3%	24.4%	13.9%	—	18.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	34.2%	29.8%	19.1%	—	36.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	20.9%	43.6%	19.1%	—	32.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	12.7%	63.2%	12.0%	5.0%	18.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	19.1%	51.4%	11.8%	—	20.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	20.2%	54.3%	18.2%	8.3%	24.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	19.2%	54.5%	10.5%	—	10.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	17.1%	68.3%	10.2%	8.3%	11.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.5%	37.0%	9.2%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	33%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	16%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗