KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Sep 10 · 01:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

21%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

AIFSNO 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.65u · AIFS −79.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	4.4%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	53.4%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	4.4%	17.1%	—	6.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	8.4%	0.1%	5.7%	—	3.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	23.4%	0.1%	—	2.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	31.2%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	29.5%	11.5%	—	6.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	19.5%	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	9.0%	1.6%	1.9%	—	2.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	20.1%	7.5%	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	17.2%	0.7%	0.0%	—	6.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	3.6%	0.1%	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	49.1%	1.5%	2.6%	—	6.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	22.4%	0.7%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.5%	19.0%	2.5%	—	11.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	33.5%	5.7%	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	39.8%	19.0%	17.0%	1.7%	17.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	48.9%	13.2%	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	45.6%	0.6%	15.5%	80.2%	4.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	16.8%	1.3%	18.3%	—	3.8%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	4.5%	2.9%	4.2%	—	0.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	—	0.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	39%	61.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	64.6°F	5.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	69.6°F	8.1°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	66.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	70.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-LE60
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗