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KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Sep 10 · 01:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
39%
HRES
21%
WN2
6%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 20.4¢Risks 20.35u
VS
AIFSNO 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.65u · AIFS −79.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:0009-09 15:0809-09 20:2409-10 01:39
AIFS SingleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:002.3%4.0%4.0%11.8%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:002.3%4.0%4.0%11.8%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:002.3%4.0%4.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:002.3%5.8%4.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:002.3%5.8%4.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:002.3%5.8%4.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:001.6%5.8%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:001.6%5.8%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:001.6%5.8%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:001.6%5.8%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:001.6%5.8%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:001.6%6.4%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:001.6%6.4%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:001.6%6.4%21.0%39.0%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:001.7%6.4%21.0%39.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON39%61.8°F4.7°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
IFS HRES21%64.6°F5.1°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
National Blend13%69.6°F8.1°F2026-09-09 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%66.4°F3.9°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%70.6°F4.8°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%71.0°F4.5°F2026-09-09 14:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-LE60
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗