KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

61%

56%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.10u · ICON −47.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	89.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	55.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	67.0%	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	6.5%	2.7%	—	75.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	5.3%	32.3%	—	65.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	16.9%	59.8%	98.6%	—	91.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	67.7%	13.6%	99.1%	—	91.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	94.5%	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	76.8%	23.8%	92.9%	—	88.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	17.3%	100.0%	—	—	79.9%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	12.2%	34.6%	91.3%	—	70.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	71.3%	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	50.9%	25.9%	75.6%	63.6%	66.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	37.0%	32.6%	—	—	53.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	34.8%	45.1%	62.4%	—	50.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	9.6%	54.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	7.4%	13.4%	45.9%	—	34.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	2.5%	10.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	4.2%	33.1%	53.3%	—	52.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.7%	30.5%	2.9%	—	45.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	8.1%	14.7%	39.6%	27.0%	43.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	13.9%	20.8%	7.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	13.7%	90.5%	62.3%	19.1%	50.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	17.4%	48.7%	66.3%	—	53.9%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	20.0%	9.5%	74.9%	22.0%	52.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	19.1%	19.1%	61.0%	—	52.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	28.0%	35.8%	54.3%	20.2%	57.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	13.6%	8.0%	54.5%	—	33.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	21.4%	14.2%	33.1%	19.2%	29.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.3%	1.6%	51.6%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	68.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	66.9°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	65.5°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗