KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

61%

56%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.10u · ICON −47.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	75.4%	80.9%	81.6%	82.4%	79.0%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	75.4%	80.9%	81.6%	82.4%	79.0%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	75.4%	80.9%	81.6%	82.4%	79.0%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	75.4%	80.9%	77.1%	82.4%	79.0%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	75.4%	80.9%	77.1%	82.4%	79.0%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	75.4%	80.9%	77.1%	82.4%	79.0%
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	77.1%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	77.1%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	77.1%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	77.1%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	77.1%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	80.2%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	80.2%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	83.0%	80.9%	80.2%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	59.4%	80.9%	80.2%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	59.4%	80.9%	80.2%	92.4%	77.9%
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	24.8%	99.1%	59.1%	71.0%	2.7%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	24.8%	99.1%	59.1%	71.0%	2.7%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	24.8%	99.1%	59.1%	71.0%	2.7%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	24.8%	99.1%	53.4%	71.0%	2.7%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	24.8%	99.1%	53.4%	71.0%	2.7%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	24.8%	99.1%	53.4%	71.0%	2.7%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	26.3%	99.1%	53.4%	71.0%	6.6%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	26.3%	99.1%	53.4%	71.0%	6.6%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	26.3%	99.1%	53.4%	71.0%	6.6%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	26.3%	99.1%	53.4%	71.0%	6.6%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	26.3%	99.1%	53.4%	61.4%	6.6%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	26.3%	99.2%	55.7%	61.4%	6.6%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	26.3%	99.2%	55.7%	61.4%	6.6%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	26.3%	99.2%	55.7%	61.4%	6.6%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	31.9%	99.2%	55.7%	61.4%	6.6%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	31.9%	99.2%	55.7%	61.4%	6.6%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	31.9%	99.2%	55.7%	61.4%	6.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	68.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	66.9°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	65.5°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗