KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 12 · 14:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

59%

48%

18%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

ICONNO 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.90u · ICON −50.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	90.3%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	60.7%	—	—	56.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	4.5%	1.8%	—	69.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	3.6%	26.0%	—	58.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	12.5%	52.3%	97.8%	—	87.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	60.3%	9.7%	98.5%	—	88.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	91.8%	—	—	40.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	70.0%	17.8%	89.5%	—	83.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	12.3%	99.9%	—	—	73.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	8.3%	26.9%	87.4%	—	62.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	63.2%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	41.8%	19.0%	67.8%	54.6%	57.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	28.4%	24.6%	—	—	44.3%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	26.3%	35.7%	52.9%	—	40.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	6.0%	44.0%	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	4.4%	8.6%	35.9%	—	25.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.3%	6.2%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	23.8%	42.4%	—	41.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.8%	21.4%	1.5%	—	34.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.5%	9.0%	28.9%	18.3%	32.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	8.2%	13.2%	4.3%	—	38.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	8.0%	84.1%	50.0%	11.8%	37.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.3%	36.1%	53.9%	—	41.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	12.0%	5.0%	63.2%	13.4%	39.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.1%	11.1%	47.2%	—	39.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	17.2%	23.4%	40.0%	11.5%	42.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.0%	3.7%	39.5%	—	21.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	7.1%	20.3%	10.2%	17.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	0.5%	35.5%	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	74.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	69.8°F	5.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	66.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	64.6°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗