KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 12 · 14:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

59%

48%

18%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

ICONNO 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.90u · ICON −50.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00	24.4%	78.8%	46.7%	43.0%	5.5%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	24.4%	78.8%	46.7%	43.0%	5.5%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00	24.4%	78.8%	46.7%	43.0%	5.5%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00	24.4%	78.8%	48.9%	43.0%	5.5%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00	24.4%	78.8%	48.9%	43.0%	5.5%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00	24.4%	78.8%	48.9%	43.0%	5.5%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	23.4%	78.8%	48.9%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	23.4%	78.8%	48.9%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	23.4%	78.8%	48.9%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	23.4%	78.8%	48.9%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	23.4%	78.8%	48.9%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	23.4%	96.9%	47.7%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	23.4%	96.9%	47.7%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	23.4%	96.9%	47.7%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	18.1%	96.9%	47.7%	62.3%	1.3%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	18.0%	96.9%	47.7%	59.0%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	74.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	69.8°F	5.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	66.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	64.6°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗