KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

78%

44%

24%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +41.60u · ICON −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	84.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	54.0%	—	—	49.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	3.1%	1.1%	—	63.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	2.4%	20.4%	—	50.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	9.0%	44.7%	96.5%	—	83.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	52.4%	6.7%	97.5%	—	84.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	88.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	62.3%	12.9%	85.2%	—	78.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	8.5%	99.9%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	5.4%	20.2%	82.2%	—	54.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	54.5%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	33.0%	13.4%	59.1%	45.4%	48.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	21.0%	17.7%	—	—	35.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	19.0%	27.1%	43.2%	—	31.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	3.5%	34.4%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.5%	5.2%	26.8%	—	17.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.6%	3.5%	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.1%	16.2%	32.1%	—	31.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	14.1%	0.7%	—	24.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	5.1%	19.9%	11.6%	22.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.5%	7.8%	2.2%	—	27.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.3%	75.4%	37.7%	6.7%	26.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.6%	24.8%	41.0%	—	29.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.5%	2.4%	50.0%	7.4%	27.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.8%	5.8%	33.8%	—	26.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.5%	13.8%	26.8%	5.9%	29.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	1.5%	26.0%	—	12.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.7%	3.1%	11.0%	4.8%	8.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%	21.6%	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE70
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70.3°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗