KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 13 · 16:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

41%

29%

17%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.0¢Risks 46.95u

ICONNO 53.0¢Risks 53.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.05u · ICON −53.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	36.5%	74.7%	71.5%	89.8%	21.3%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	36.5%	74.7%	71.5%	89.8%	21.3%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	36.5%	74.7%	48.3%	89.8%	21.3%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	36.5%	74.7%	48.3%	89.8%	21.3%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	36.5%	74.7%	48.3%	89.8%	21.3%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00	10.4%	74.7%	48.3%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00	10.4%	74.7%	48.3%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00	10.4%	74.7%	48.3%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00	10.4%	74.7%	48.3%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00	10.4%	65.7%	48.3%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00	10.4%	65.7%	39.4%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	10.4%	65.7%	39.4%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00	10.4%	65.7%	39.4%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00	55.2%	65.7%	39.4%	16.5%	22.7%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00	55.2%	65.7%	39.4%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	55.2%	65.7%	39.4%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	39.4%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	39.4%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	39.4%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	39.4%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	47.3%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	47.3%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	47.3%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	47.3%	16.5%	22.8%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	47.3%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	47.3%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	47.3%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	47.3%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	47.3%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	58.9%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	58.9%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	74.8%	65.8%	58.9%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	58.9%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	55.2%	65.8%	58.9%	68.5%	64.0%
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00	24.3%	66.5%	33.1%	52.4%	6.6%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	24.3%	66.5%	33.1%	52.4%	6.6%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	24.3%	66.5%	33.1%	52.4%	36.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00	24.3%	66.5%	42.8%	52.4%	36.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	24.3%	66.5%	42.8%	52.4%	36.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	24.3%	66.5%	42.8%	52.4%	36.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	42.8%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	42.8%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	42.8%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	42.8%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	42.8%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	31.2%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	31.2%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00	19.4%	66.5%	31.2%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	36.5%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	13.3%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	13.3%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	13.3%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	22.3%	64.2%	31.2%	53.1%	13.3%
2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00	23.7%	64.2%	31.2%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	23.7%	64.2%	31.2%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	23.7%	64.2%	31.2%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00	23.7%	64.2%	31.2%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	23.7%	64.2%	31.2%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	23.7%	63.5%	30.1%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T12:15:03+00:00	23.7%	63.5%	30.1%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T13:00:14+00:00	23.7%	63.5%	30.1%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	15.7%	63.5%	30.1%	26.2%	13.3%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	15.6%	66.7%	30.1%	26.2%	14.0%
2026-09-11T15:16:00+00:00	15.6%	63.5%	30.1%	26.2%	14.0%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00	15.6%	63.5%	30.1%	26.2%	14.0%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00	15.6%	63.5%	30.1%	26.2%	1.8%
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00	15.6%	63.5%	25.5%	26.2%	1.8%
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00	15.6%	63.5%	25.5%	26.2%	1.8%
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00	15.6%	63.5%	25.5%	26.2%	1.8%
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	22.3%	63.5%	25.5%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	22.3%	63.5%	25.5%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	22.3%	63.5%	25.5%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	22.3%	63.5%	25.5%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	22.3%	63.5%	25.5%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	22.3%	64.3%	26.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	22.3%	64.3%	26.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	22.3%	64.3%	26.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	12.6%	64.3%	26.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	12.6%	64.3%	26.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	12.0%	92.3%	23.7%	33.3%	0.9%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	12.0%	92.3%	23.7%	33.3%	0.9%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	12.0%	92.3%	23.7%	33.3%	0.9%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	12.0%	92.3%	23.7%	33.3%	0.9%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	12.0%	92.3%	23.7%	33.3%	0.9%
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00	10.9%	92.3%	23.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	10.9%	92.3%	23.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	10.9%	92.3%	23.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00	10.9%	92.3%	23.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00	10.9%	92.3%	23.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00	10.9%	92.0%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00	10.9%	92.0%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	10.9%	92.0%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00	17.3%	92.0%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	17.3%	92.0%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	17.3%	92.6%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00	17.3%	92.6%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00	17.3%	92.6%	28.7%	40.6%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	74.4°F	2.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	69.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	68.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	66.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗