KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 13 · 16:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

41%

29%

17%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.0¢Risks 46.95u

ICONNO 53.0¢Risks 53.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.05u · ICON −53.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	84.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	47.3%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	2.1%	0.7%	—	56.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	1.5%	15.6%	—	43.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	6.3%	37.2%	94.8%	—	78.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	44.4%	4.5%	96.1%	—	78.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	83.7%	—	—	25.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	54.2%	9.0%	79.9%	—	71.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	5.6%	99.7%	—	—	57.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	3.4%	14.6%	75.9%	—	45.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	45.5%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	25.1%	9.0%	50.0%	36.4%	39.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	14.8%	12.2%	—	—	26.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.1%	19.7%	33.9%	—	23.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	2.0%	25.7%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.3%	3.0%	19.0%	—	11.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.3%	1.9%	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	10.4%	23.0%	—	22.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	8.7%	0.3%	—	16.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	2.7%	12.7%	6.8%	14.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.3%	4.3%	1.0%	—	18.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.1%	64.6%	26.6%	3.5%	17.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.8%	15.8%	29.1%	—	19.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	1.0%	36.8%	3.7%	17.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.7%	2.7%	22.1%	—	16.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	7.3%	16.3%	2.7%	18.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.5%	15.3%	—	6.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.4%	1.2%	5.2%	2.0%	4.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	11.5%	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	74.4°F	2.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	69.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	68.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	66.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗