WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 00:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
16%
AIFS
7%
EPS
4%
ICON
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u
VS
WN2NO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.85u · WN2 −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00IFS HRES: 15.7% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00IFS HRES: 15.7% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00IFS HRES: 15.7% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00IFS HRES: 15.7% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00IFS HRES: 15.7% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00IFS HRES: 15.7% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 15.7% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:0009-07 20:0709-07 22:2209-08 00:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:007.4%4.4%0.3%15.7%1.3%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:007.4%4.4%0.3%15.7%1.3%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:007.4%4.4%0.3%15.7%1.3%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:007.4%4.4%0.3%15.7%1.3%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:007.4%4.4%0.9%15.7%1.3%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:007.4%4.4%0.9%15.7%1.3%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:007.4%4.4%0.9%15.7%1.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES16%——Not retainedPending
AIFS Single7%——Not retainedPending
National Blend4%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble4%——Not retainedPending
ICON1%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 2<1%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 07 · 20:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗