KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 00:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u

WN2NO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.85u · WN2 −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	14.6%	—	2.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	14.9%	—	2.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	1.8%	—	0.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	40.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	—	0.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	4%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 07 · 20:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗