KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 12 · 10:49 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.1¢Risks 24.15u

EPSNO 75.8¢Risks 75.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.85u · EPS −75.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	91.7%	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	5.2%	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	61.1%	75.4%	—	2.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	62.9%	20.4%	—	4.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	35.1%	5.6%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	3.1%	38.2%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	1.4%	22.5%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	28.8%	0.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	35.4%	12.7%	0.2%	—	1.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	1.6%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	5.0%	16.6%	1.0%	2.5%	2.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	9.2%	11.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	9.4%	5.6%	2.1%	—	4.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	32.6%	3.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	35.9%	24.3%	4.4%	—	8.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	54.2%	27.9%	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	42.4%	7.0%	2.3%	—	2.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	55.6%	7.1%	46.6%	—	3.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	26.0%	16.0%	3.8%	7.6%	3.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	15.2%	9.7%	24.4%	—	1.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	13.7%	0.0%	0.6%	9.5%	1.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	9.2%	1.3%	0.4%	—	0.9%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	6.5%	14.9%	0.1%	5.7%	0.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	5.8%	5.8%	0.3%	—	0.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	2.5%	1.5%	0.4%	4.4%	0.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	6.0%	10.5%	0.3%	—	1.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	2.4%	4.4%	1.0%	2.9%	1.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	9.9%	22.8%	0.2%	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	48%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	65.4°F	4.3°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	68.8°F	6.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	68.4°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	69.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-LE60
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗