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KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 12 · 10:49 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
48%
AIFS
13%
WN2
2%
HRES
1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 24.1¢Risks 24.15u
VS
EPSNO 75.8¢Risks 75.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.85u · EPS −75.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00IFS HRES: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00IFS HRES: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00IFS HRES: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00IFS HRES: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:0009-10 15:1209-12 01:0209-12 10:49
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:007.9%1.9%1.6%2.1%25.9%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:007.9%1.9%1.6%2.1%25.9%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:0010.9%0.6%1.3%5.9%32.2%
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:0010.9%0.6%1.8%5.9%32.2%
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:0010.9%0.6%1.8%5.9%32.2%
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:0010.9%0.6%1.8%5.9%32.2%
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:006.9%0.6%1.8%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:006.9%0.6%1.8%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:006.9%0.6%1.8%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:006.9%0.6%1.8%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:006.9%0.6%1.8%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:006.9%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:006.9%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:006.9%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:0013.6%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:0013.6%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T03:17:45+00:0013.6%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:0013.6%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T04:48:00+00:0013.6%0.6%1.7%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T05:33:06+00:0013.6%0.6%1.5%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T06:18:14+00:0013.6%0.6%1.5%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T07:03:19+00:0013.6%0.6%1.5%5.7%32.2%
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:0012.6%0.6%1.5%1.3%47.7%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:0012.6%0.6%1.5%1.3%47.7%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:0012.6%0.6%1.5%1.3%47.7%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:0012.6%0.6%1.5%1.3%47.7%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:0012.6%0.6%1.5%1.3%47.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON48%60.7°F3.5°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single13%65.4°F4.3°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
National Blend10%68.8°F6.5°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%68.4°F3.6°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES1%69.8°F4.2°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%69.0°F3.5°F2026-09-12 02:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%72.2°F4.6°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-LE60
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗