KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

86%

83%

74%

63%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

HRESNO 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.35u · HRES −20.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	85.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	79.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	64.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	71.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	91.5%	61.1%	—	57.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	53.6%	68.3%	78.5%	—	60.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	58.3%	80.0%	61.3%	—	53.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	98.2%	99.0%	78.2%	—	68.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	63.1%	70.7%	50.8%	76.8%	56.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	78.6%	86.3%	—	—	74.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	96.4%	94.6%	73.1%	—	78.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	73.6%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	89.8%	95.7%	76.3%	—	79.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	97.9%	92.3%	—	—	82.9%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	84.7%	79.0%	91.4%	—	85.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	88.6%	81.0%	—	—	78.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	78.1%	78.8%	91.0%	—	70.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	92.8%	83.7%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	96.7%	95.5%	96.0%	—	83.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	97.1%	96.0%	80.2%	—	75.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	97.3%	38.5%	93.5%	45.4%	76.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	97.3%	96.5%	95.7%	—	81.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	97.7%	99.0%	97.5%	48.8%	82.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	98.7%	97.0%	97.4%	—	81.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.0%	97.0%	98.7%	54.0%	83.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	96.8%	99.5%	98.4%	—	87.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	95.3%	99.6%	99.1%	79.8%	83.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	92.5%	99.8%	98.7%	—	85.6%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	84.8%	99.8%	98.4%	85.8%	86.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	97.4%	99.2%	98.7%	—	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	69.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	67.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	66.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗