KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

64%

59%

56%

44%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.45u

HRESNO 39.5¢Risks 39.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.55u · HRES −39.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	38.7%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	68.9%	27.5%	—	24.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	20.4%	33.0%	44.9%	—	25.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	22.8%	45.4%	25.1%	—	18.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	86.4%	90.7%	41.3%	—	30.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	23.8%	30.8%	15.2%	37.7%	18.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	39.0%	50.9%	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	75.9%	69.3%	31.4%	—	37.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	31.0%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	54.6%	71.0%	33.0%	—	37.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	80.4%	59.4%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	42.3%	33.9%	55.8%	—	43.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	48.0%	35.3%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	30.3%	31.2%	52.1%	—	22.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	55.3%	36.5%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	67.9%	62.9%	64.9%	—	35.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	68.5%	63.3%	28.6%	—	23.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	68.0%	4.0%	52.3%	5.7%	23.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	66.4%	61.9%	58.4%	—	27.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	66.9%	77.3%	65.8%	5.5%	26.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	73.1%	60.2%	62.7%	—	23.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	73.9%	58.0%	70.5%	5.7%	24.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	54.2%	79.9%	65.0%	—	27.6%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	44.2%	80.9%	70.7%	16.3%	20.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	32.5%	83.8%	63.3%	—	20.2%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	17.1%	82.9%	56.3%	18.1%	19.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	45.1%	63.0%	56.6%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	72.3°F	2.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	71.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	56%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	69.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗