KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

71%

66%

49%

49%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

WN2NO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.30u · WN2 −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	64.1%	—	—	47.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	79.2%	—	—	37.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	1.3%	59.7%	4.0%	—	24.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	55.8%	67.0%	33.7%	—	19.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	27.7%	54.6%	38.7%	4.2%	27.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	21.2%	21.2%	41.3%	—	29.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	18.4%	8.0%	35.3%	—	30.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	12.3%	2.5%	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	56.1%	47.4%	37.1%	—	22.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	44.6%	46.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	56.4%	34.7%	64.4%	—	16.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	69.9%	47.2%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	0.7%	38.5%	63.4%	—	20.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	83.0%	31.7%	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	64.1%	26.8%	14.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	61.5%	65.5%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	75.3%	84.5%	81.0%	—	34.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	74.2%	51.1%	1.1%	—	31.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	86.0%	75.8%	74.0%	48.8%	34.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	83.3%	88.0%	80.1%	—	48.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	77.3%	91.5%	76.4%	57.4%	51.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	67.5%	97.2%	82.6%	—	53.9%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	70.5%	98.4%	72.7%	63.2%	59.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	79.9%	98.0%	71.2%	—	67.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	89.2%	98.8%	87.8%	83.7%	68.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	87.2%	97.1%	85.6%	—	54.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	88.3%	96.6%	83.9%	78.6%	62.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	92.7%	95.9%	87.7%	—	74.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	73.4°F	2.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	72.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	72.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	70.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	70.4°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	68.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 09 · 11:22 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗