KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

71%

66%

49%

49%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

WN2NO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.30u · WN2 −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	84.1%	73.9%	57.5%	60.3%	22.8%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	84.1%	73.9%	57.5%	60.3%	22.8%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	84.1%	73.9%	57.5%	60.3%	22.8%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	79.3%	73.9%	57.5%	60.3%	22.8%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	79.3%	73.9%	57.5%	60.3%	23.1%
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	79.3%	69.9%	57.5%	60.3%	23.1%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	79.3%	69.8%	57.5%	60.3%	23.1%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	79.3%	69.8%	57.5%	60.3%	19.0%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	79.3%	69.8%	45.0%	60.3%	19.0%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	79.3%	69.8%	45.0%	60.3%	19.0%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	79.3%	69.8%	45.0%	60.3%	19.0%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	45.0%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	45.0%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	45.0%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	45.0%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	45.0%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	35.2%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	35.2%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	57.2%	69.8%	35.2%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	44.2%	69.8%	35.2%	34.2%	47.1%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	44.2%	57.7%	35.2%	34.2%	46.7%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00	44.2%	57.7%	35.2%	34.2%	46.7%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00	44.2%	57.7%	35.2%	34.2%	46.7%
2026-09-10T04:40:25+00:00	44.2%	57.7%	35.2%	34.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	44.2%	57.7%	36.0%	34.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	44.2%	57.7%	36.0%	34.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	44.2%	57.7%	36.0%	34.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	37.6%	57.7%	36.0%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	37.6%	57.7%	36.0%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	37.6%	57.7%	36.0%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	37.6%	57.7%	36.0%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	37.6%	57.7%	36.0%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	37.6%	65.1%	33.5%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	37.6%	65.1%	33.5%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	37.6%	65.1%	33.5%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	34.8%	65.1%	33.5%	17.2%	71.4%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	34.8%	65.1%	33.5%	17.2%	71.9%
2026-09-11T15:16:00+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	59.6%	49.3%	37.8%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	59.6%	49.3%	37.8%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	59.6%	49.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	49.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	49.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	49.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	56.4%	75.6%	62.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	56.4%	77.1%	69.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	56.4%	77.1%	69.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	56.4%	77.1%	69.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	64.1%	77.1%	69.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	64.1%	77.1%	69.4%	41.2%	35.8%
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00	53.6%	86.8%	39.2%	41.3%	59.1%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	53.6%	86.8%	39.2%	41.3%	59.1%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	53.6%	86.8%	48.9%	41.3%	59.1%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	53.6%	86.8%	48.9%	41.3%	59.1%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	53.6%	86.8%	48.9%	41.3%	59.1%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	61.1%	86.8%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	61.1%	86.8%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	61.1%	86.8%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	61.1%	86.8%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	61.1%	88.5%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	61.1%	88.5%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	61.1%	88.5%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	61.1%	88.5%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	67.3%	88.5%	48.9%	49.0%	71.4%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	66.4%	88.5%	48.9%	49.0%	71.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	73.4°F	2.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	72.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	72.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	70.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	70.4°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	68.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 09 · 11:22 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗