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KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Sep 09 · 10:37 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
79%
EPS
66%
HRES
54%
WN2
52%
ICON
20%
Consensus
59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u
VS
ICONNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.40u · ICON −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:0009-09 07:3709-09 09:0709-09 10:37
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:0079.3%66.2%51.6%53.9%19.9%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:0079.3%66.2%51.6%53.9%19.9%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:0079.3%66.2%51.6%53.9%19.9%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:0079.3%66.2%51.6%53.9%19.9%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:0079.3%66.2%51.6%53.9%19.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single79%76.0°F5.5°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%73.4°F4.5°F2026-09-08 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.3°F7.8°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending
IFS HRES54%72.1°F6.1°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 252%71.7°F5.1°F2026-09-08 18:00Pending
ICON20%63.2°F9.8°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗