KMSP / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Sep 09 · 10:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

66%

54%

52%

20%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

ICONNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.40u · ICON −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	58.1%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	41.6%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	74.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	0.8%	52.8%	2.7%	—	18.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	48.5%	60.1%	27.2%	—	15.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	21.6%	46.9%	31.6%	2.8%	21.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	15.9%	15.9%	33.7%	—	23.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	13.4%	5.3%	27.9%	—	23.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	8.5%	1.5%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	47.4%	38.8%	29.1%	—	16.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	35.9%	37.6%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	47.2%	26.6%	55.5%	—	11.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	61.2%	37.9%	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	29.6%	53.9%	—	14.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	75.9%	23.4%	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	54.1%	19.0%	9.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	51.1%	55.3%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	65.9%	77.0%	72.7%	—	24.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	64.3%	40.0%	0.5%	—	22.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	78.5%	65.9%	63.7%	37.4%	24.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	74.7%	80.9%	70.7%	—	37.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	66.9%	85.6%	65.8%	45.0%	38.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	55.1%	94.4%	73.1%	—	41.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	58.0%	96.5%	60.6%	50.0%	46.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	68.8%	95.7%	58.3%	—	54.2%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	80.9%	97.1%	78.8%	73.2%	54.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	77.6%	93.5%	75.2%	—	39.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	78.6%	92.3%	72.4%	65.4%	46.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	85.0%	90.8%	77.2%	—	59.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	73.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.3°F	7.8°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	72.1°F	6.1°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	71.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	20%	63.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 72°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗