KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

69%

57%

54%

52%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.50u

HRESNO 34.5¢Risks 34.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.50u · HRES −34.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	99.6%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	17.2%	—	—	44.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	29.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	15.9%	—	—	27.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	35.6%	84.2%	4.0%	49.3%	28.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	44.2%	0.1%	61.6%	—	31.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	30.9%	54.6%	58.3%	—	38.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	46.8%	45.2%	22.4%	—	41.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	17.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	40.1%	45.0%	76.8%	—	30.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	41.5%	4.7%	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	90.6%	68.6%	—	49.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	4.5%	85.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	58.2%	—	36.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	1.3%	32.6%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	54.9%	97.5%	48.0%	—	53.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	66.5%	87.6%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	67.0%	96.7%	66.0%	0.0%	47.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	88.4%	60.5%	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	85.7%	95.0%	83.8%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	76.9%	87.1%	1.3%	—	70.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	74.0%	97.5%	85.3%	—	77.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	82.5%	99.3%	81.7%	—	82.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	79.2%	92.5%	90.5%	66.9%	81.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	77.2%	99.8%	87.8%	—	73.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	77.0%	99.3%	88.0%	63.2%	61.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	78.9%	74.7%	78.9%	—	58.3%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	57.2%	68.2%	73.2%	40.0%	64.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	64.8%	76.4%	63.3%	—	56.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	45.3%	84.8%	30.3%	37.6%	21.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	21.6%	51.6%	17.0%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	73.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	72.6°F	5.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗