KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

69%

57%

54%

52%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.50u

HRESNO 34.5¢Risks 34.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.50u · HRES −34.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	76.5%	77.1%	65.1%	37.3%	77.8%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	76.5%	77.1%	65.1%	37.3%	77.8%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	76.5%	77.1%	65.1%	37.3%	77.8%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	76.5%	77.1%	62.4%	37.3%	77.8%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	76.5%	77.1%	62.4%	37.3%	77.8%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	76.5%	77.1%	62.4%	37.3%	77.8%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	66.3%	77.1%	62.4%	37.3%	56.9%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	66.3%	77.1%	62.4%	37.3%	56.9%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	66.3%	77.1%	62.4%	37.3%	56.9%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	66.3%	77.1%	62.4%	37.3%	56.9%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	66.3%	77.1%	62.4%	52.0%	56.9%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	66.3%	79.0%	68.6%	52.0%	56.9%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	66.3%	79.0%	68.6%	52.0%	56.9%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	66.3%	79.0%	68.6%	52.0%	56.9%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	54.0%	79.0%	68.6%	52.0%	56.9%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	54.0%	79.0%	68.6%	52.0%	56.9%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	54.0%	79.0%	68.6%	52.0%	56.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	73.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	72.6°F	5.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗