KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

56%

51%

51%

45%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.8¢Risks 25.92u

AIFSNO 48.2¢Risks 24.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.08u · AIFS −24.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	99.2%	—	—	22.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	10.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	9.0%	—	—	17.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	74.3%	1.8%	35.6%	18.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	30.4%	0.0%	47.1%	—	19.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	18.9%	39.4%	43.2%	—	24.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	31.6%	30.1%	12.3%	—	26.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	8.8%	—	—	9.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	25.1%	29.3%	62.3%	—	17.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	26.0%	1.8%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	81.0%	51.7%	—	32.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	1.6%	72.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	40.0%	—	20.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.3%	17.7%	—	—	25.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	35.7%	92.8%	29.6%	—	34.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	47.0%	74.3%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	46.9%	90.6%	45.9%	0.0%	28.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	74.7%	39.5%	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	69.9%	86.3%	66.9%	0.0%	37.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	56.7%	71.4%	0.3%	—	48.9%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	52.3%	91.5%	68.0%	—	57.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	63.0%	96.9%	61.9%	—	63.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	57.4%	79.2%	75.4%	42.6%	61.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	53.9%	98.5%	69.8%	—	48.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	52.7%	96.3%	69.3%	36.8%	35.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	54.2%	48.6%	54.2%	—	31.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	29.3%	40.0%	45.7%	16.3%	35.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	35.2%	48.5%	33.8%	—	27.2%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	18.1%	59.4%	9.6%	13.4%	5.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.3%	21.6%	3.7%	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	59%	75.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	75.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	74.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	51%	74.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	73.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	73.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 11 · 15:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗