KMSP / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

56%

51%

51%

45%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.8¢Risks 25.92u

AIFSNO 48.2¢Risks 24.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.08u · AIFS −24.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T15:16:00+00:00	38.3%	24.9%	37.7%	44.6%	51.8%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00	38.3%	24.9%	37.7%	44.6%	51.8%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00	38.3%	24.9%	37.7%	44.6%	41.2%
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00	38.3%	24.9%	54.5%	44.6%	41.2%
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00	38.3%	24.9%	54.5%	44.6%	41.2%
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00	38.3%	24.9%	54.5%	44.6%	41.2%
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	51.5%	24.9%	54.5%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	51.5%	24.9%	54.5%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	51.5%	24.9%	54.5%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	51.5%	24.9%	54.5%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	51.5%	24.9%	54.5%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	51.5%	26.0%	57.1%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	51.5%	26.0%	57.1%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	51.5%	26.0%	57.1%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	63.1%	26.0%	57.1%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	63.1%	26.0%	57.1%	50.0%	41.2%
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00	43.3%	57.1%	35.9%	45.3%	49.1%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	43.3%	57.1%	35.9%	45.3%	49.1%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	43.3%	57.1%	55.1%	45.3%	49.1%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	43.3%	57.1%	55.1%	45.3%	49.1%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	43.3%	57.1%	55.1%	45.3%	49.1%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	53.6%	57.1%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	53.6%	57.1%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	53.6%	57.1%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	53.6%	57.1%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	53.6%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	53.6%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	53.6%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	53.6%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	55.1%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	50.0%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	50.0%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	45.5%	62.4%	50.0%	52.6%	39.9%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00	42.9%	62.4%	50.0%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	42.9%	62.4%	50.0%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00	42.9%	62.4%	50.0%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00	42.9%	62.4%	50.0%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	42.9%	58.9%	51.1%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00	42.9%	58.9%	51.1%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00	42.9%	58.9%	51.1%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	42.9%	58.9%	51.1%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00	44.6%	58.9%	51.1%	56.1%	51.0%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	44.6%	59.1%	51.1%	56.1%	51.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	59%	75.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	75.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	74.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	51%	74.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	73.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	73.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260917-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 11 · 15:16 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗