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KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 18 · 06:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
79%
HRES
70%
ICON
25%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.55u
VS
ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.45u · ICON −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-18T03:02:43+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T03:02:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-18T03:02:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00IFS HRES: 70.3% · 2026-09-18T03:02:43+00:00IFS HRES: 70.3% · 2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00IFS HRES: 70.3% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00IFS HRES: 70.3% · 2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00IFS HRES: 70.3% · 2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00IFS HRES: 70.3% · 2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-09-18T03:02:43+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:0009-18 03:0209-18 05:1809-18 06:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-18T03:02:43+00:0078.9%100.0%99.5%70.3%44.4%
2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:0078.9%100.0%99.5%70.3%44.4%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:0078.9%100.0%99.5%70.3%25.1%
2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:0078.9%100.0%99.5%70.3%25.1%
2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:0078.9%100.0%99.5%70.3%25.1%
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:0078.9%100.0%99.5%70.3%25.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%75.2°F2.8°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%70.2°F3.4°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single79%64.8°F4.1°F2026-09-17 18:00Pending
IFS HRES70%63.5°F3.8°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%62.0°F2.2°F2026-09-18 02:00Pending
National Blend56%62.0°F3.3°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
ICON25%59.2°F3.4°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗