KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 18 · 06:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

79%

70%

25%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.55u

ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.45u · ICON −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	87.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	9.0%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	99.9%	—	92.9%	85.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	33.6%	6.2%	—	—	94.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	98.0%	79.1%	—	96.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	97.7%	99.2%	—	93.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	99.6%	96.2%	—	90.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	99.3%	99.3%	—	92.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	98.2%	—	91.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	77.4%	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	100.0%	99.6%	—	96.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	97.9%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	95.0%	93.7%	—	85.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	96.8%	81.0%	—	—	79.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	86.9%	84.1%	97.1%	—	70.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	82.3%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	70.6%	87.2%	97.7%	—	68.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	70.2%	85.0%	—	—	69.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	67.9%	90.6%	95.8%	45.6%	66.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	69.5%	96.9%	95.5%	—	65.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	71.0%	96.9%	97.7%	40.8%	58.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	68.5%	80.1%	96.7%	—	58.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	69.2%	53.7%	97.4%	—	68.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	78.1%	70.9%	98.1%	—	59.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	61.9%	71.6%	95.4%	31.9%	54.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	52.8%	56.9%	89.6%	—	63.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	50.0%	51.4%	79.8%	31.8%	64.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	60.5%	51.5%	74.0%	—	54.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	51.6%	31.7%	81.9%	51.6%	76.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	19.2%	77.2%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.2°F	2.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	70.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	64.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	63.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	59.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗