KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

82%

43%

41%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.7¢Risks 70.70u

HRESNO 29.3¢Risks 29.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.30u · HRES −29.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	4.9%	—	—	70.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	99.8%	—	87.4%	77.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	22.3%	3.0%	—	—	89.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	95.5%	67.7%	—	93.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	94.9%	98.0%	—	86.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	98.9%	91.9%	—	82.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	98.0%	98.0%	—	85.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	95.3%	—	83.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	62.6%	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	100.0%	98.7%	—	92.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	94.3%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	88.1%	85.6%	—	71.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	91.6%	65.7%	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	73.7%	69.6%	92.1%	—	51.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	66.5%	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	51.0%	73.2%	92.9%	—	49.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	50.0%	69.3%	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	46.7%	77.8%	88.1%	25.5%	45.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	47.8%	90.3%	87.1%	—	43.3%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	48.8%	90.0%	92.0%	20.7%	35.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	45.2%	59.5%	89.2%	—	34.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	45.0%	29.8%	90.5%	—	43.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	55.1%	46.1%	92.3%	—	33.7%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	35.6%	46.0%	84.3%	12.7%	28.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	26.5%	30.0%	71.2%	—	36.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	23.4%	24.5%	54.3%	11.5%	35.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	31.1%	23.6%	45.5%	—	26.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	22.6%	10.2%	54.7%	22.6%	46.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	29.5%	4.5%	46.7%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	76.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	67.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	65.0°F	7.5°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	43%	62.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	62.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 16 · 15:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗