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KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
98%
AIFS
82%
ICON
43%
HRES
41%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 70.7¢Risks 70.70u
VS
HRESNO 29.3¢Risks 29.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.30u · HRES −29.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00IFS HRES: 48.3% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00IFS HRES: 48.3% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00IFS HRES: 48.3% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00IFS HRES: 48.3% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00IFS HRES: 48.3% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00IFS HRES: 42.2% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00IFS HRES: 42.2% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00IFS HRES: 42.2% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00IFS HRES: 42.2% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:0009-16 15:4009-16 21:4109-17 02:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:0076.0%100.0%99.0%48.1%41.1%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:0076.0%100.0%99.0%48.3%43.3%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:0076.0%100.0%98.6%48.3%43.3%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:0076.0%100.0%98.6%48.3%43.3%
2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:0076.0%100.0%98.6%48.3%43.3%
2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:0076.0%100.0%98.6%48.3%43.3%
2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:0079.5%100.0%98.6%42.2%43.3%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:0079.5%100.0%98.6%42.2%43.3%
2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:0079.5%100.0%98.6%42.2%43.3%
2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:0079.5%100.0%98.6%42.2%43.3%
2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:0080.3%100.0%98.4%41.4%43.3%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:0080.3%100.0%98.4%41.4%43.3%
2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:0080.3%100.0%98.4%41.4%43.3%
2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:0081.5%100.0%98.4%41.4%43.3%
2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:0081.5%100.0%98.4%41.4%43.3%
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:0081.5%100.0%98.4%41.4%43.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%76.3°F3.0°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 298%71.0°F3.5°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single82%67.3°F4.2°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
National Blend58%65.0°F7.5°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%64.0°F3.4°F2026-09-16 14:00Pending
ICON43%62.9°F3.5°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
IFS HRES41%62.6°F4.1°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 16 · 15:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗