KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

43%

30%

10%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

ICONNO 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.90u · ICON −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	99.4%	—	79.3%	66.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	13.5%	1.3%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	91.0%	54.2%	—	87.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	89.7%	95.4%	—	77.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	97.2%	84.5%	—	70.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	95.2%	95.2%	—	74.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	89.5%	—	70.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	—	45.7%	—	—	74.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	100.0%	96.2%	—	83.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	87.0%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	76.3%	72.6%	—	54.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	81.7%	47.2%	—	—	44.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	55.8%	51.0%	82.3%	—	33.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	47.0%	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	31.2%	54.1%	83.0%	—	29.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	29.8%	48.9%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	26.4%	58.7%	73.6%	11.4%	25.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	26.7%	76.9%	71.4%	—	23.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	27.0%	75.8%	79.3%	8.1%	16.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	23.4%	35.9%	73.7%	—	16.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	22.7%	12.4%	75.4%	—	21.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	30.2%	22.8%	78.1%	—	14.3%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	14.9%	22.0%	63.2%	3.5%	10.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	9.2%	11.1%	44.4%	—	14.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	7.3%	7.8%	26.8%	2.7%	13.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	10.5%	7.0%	19.2%	—	8.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	6.1%	2.0%	25.0%	6.1%	19.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	8.6%	0.6%	18.1%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.2°F	2.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	70.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	64.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	63.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	61.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗