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KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
92%
AIFS
43%
HRES
30%
ICON
10%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.10u
VS
ICONNO 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.90u · ICON −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-17T15:00:49+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T15:00:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-09-17T15:00:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T15:00:49+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 38.5% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 29.7% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00IFS HRES: 29.7% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00IFS HRES: 29.7% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 29.7% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00IFS HRES: 29.7% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00IFS HRES: 29.7% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-09-17T15:00:49+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:0009-17 15:0009-17 21:0109-18 02:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-17T15:00:49+00:0051.9%100.0%93.7%38.5%14.2%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:0051.9%100.0%93.7%38.5%14.2%
2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:0051.9%100.0%93.7%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:0051.9%100.0%94.1%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:0051.9%100.0%94.1%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:0051.9%100.0%94.1%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:0043.2%100.0%94.1%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:0043.2%100.0%94.1%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:0043.2%100.0%94.1%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:0043.2%100.0%94.1%38.5%10.2%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:0043.2%100.0%94.1%29.7%10.2%
2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:0043.2%100.0%91.7%29.7%10.2%
2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:0043.2%100.0%91.7%29.7%10.2%
2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:0043.2%100.0%91.7%29.7%10.2%
2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:0043.2%100.0%91.7%29.7%10.2%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:0043.2%100.0%91.7%29.7%10.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%75.2°F2.8°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 292%70.2°F3.4°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.1°F2026-09-17 14:00Pending
National Blend54%66.0°F5.5°F2026-09-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single43%64.8°F4.1°F2026-09-17 18:00Pending
IFS HRES30%63.5°F3.8°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
ICON10%61.0°F3.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗