KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

64%

20%

12%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.15u

ICONNO 44.9¢Risks 44.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.85u · ICON −44.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	97.9%	—	62.8%	47.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	5.4%	0.3%	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	79.1%	33.6%	—	73.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	76.3%	87.2%	—	58.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	91.0%	67.0%	—	48.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	85.5%	85.5%	—	52.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	—	73.5%	—	46.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	22.6%	—	—	50.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	99.6%	86.9%	—	62.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	67.4%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	50.9%	46.3%	—	28.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	57.5%	21.7%	—	—	19.6%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	27.9%	24.0%	57.7%	—	12.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	20.4%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	10.3%	25.1%	57.2%	—	9.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	9.2%	20.5%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	7.3%	27.3%	42.4%	2.1%	7.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	7.1%	45.5%	38.9%	—	5.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	6.8%	43.0%	47.7%	1.1%	3.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	5.1%	10.2%	39.3%	—	2.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.6%	1.8%	40.1%	—	4.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.8%	4.3%	42.3%	—	2.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.0%	3.7%	25.1%	0.2%	1.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	1.2%	11.8%	—	1.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%	4.4%	0.1%	1.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.9%	0.4%	2.2%	—	0.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	3.1%	0.3%	2.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	1.6%	—	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	74.6°F	3.0°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	70.1°F	4.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	68.8°F	7.9°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	64.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗