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KMSP / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
WN2
86%
AIFS
64%
HRES
20%
ICON
12%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.15u
VS
ICONNO 44.9¢Risks 44.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.85u · ICON −44.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00AIFS Single: 55.4% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00AIFS Single: 55.4% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00AIFS Single: 55.4% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00AIFS Single: 55.4% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00AIFS Single: 55.4% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.5% · 2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.5% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.5% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.5% · 2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.5% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.0% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00ICON: 28.8% · 2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00ICON: 28.8% · 2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00ICON: 28.8% · 2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00ICON: 28.8% · 2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00ICON: 28.8% · 2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:0009-11 07:4409-15 20:0409-16 02:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:0070.1%84.5%82.9%80.6%28.8%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:0070.1%84.5%82.9%80.6%28.8%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:0070.1%84.5%82.9%80.6%28.8%
2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:0070.1%84.5%82.9%80.6%28.8%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:0070.1%84.5%82.9%80.6%28.8%
2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:0055.4%99.2%88.0%20.7%30.4%
2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:0055.4%99.2%87.4%20.7%30.4%
2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:0055.4%99.2%87.4%20.7%30.4%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:0055.4%99.2%87.4%20.7%30.4%
2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:0055.4%99.2%87.4%20.7%30.4%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:0058.0%99.2%87.4%20.7%12.4%
2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:0058.0%99.2%87.4%20.7%12.4%
2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:0058.0%99.2%87.4%20.7%12.4%
2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:0058.0%99.2%87.4%20.7%12.4%
2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:0058.0%99.2%87.4%19.5%12.4%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:0058.0%97.9%85.7%19.5%12.4%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:0058.0%97.9%85.7%19.5%12.4%
2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:0058.0%97.9%85.7%19.5%12.4%
2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:0064.1%97.9%85.7%19.5%12.4%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:0064.1%97.9%85.7%19.5%12.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble98%74.6°F3.0°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 286%72.4°F3.7°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single64%70.1°F4.4°F2026-09-15 18:00Pending
NWS forecast55%69.0°F3.9°F2026-09-15 15:00Pending
National Blend52%68.8°F7.9°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending
IFS HRES20%64.6°F4.5°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
ICON12%64.0°F3.9°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗