KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 19 · 06:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

91%

74%

11%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · ICON −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	78.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.7%	—	93.0%	81.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	96.2%	—	—	87.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	87.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	98.0%	52.8%	—	79.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	79.0%	95.6%	—	89.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	98.9%	—	87.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	100.0%	93.8%	—	95.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	76.2%	—	90.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	66.6%	32.6%	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	75.9%	26.9%	87.8%	—	85.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	73.6%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	68.6%	14.4%	94.5%	—	86.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	41.5%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	43.2%	4.6%	94.4%	—	89.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	63.7%	9.2%	—	—	87.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	70.6%	15.7%	98.8%	—	91.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	66.5%	11.1%	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	74.5%	5.3%	86.9%	—	91.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	67.5%	6.0%	14.8%	—	92.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	54.6%	5.4%	84.0%	36.3%	94.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	58.4%	5.5%	60.7%	—	89.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	53.7%	8.5%	69.2%	45.0%	86.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	48.7%	12.8%	55.1%	—	85.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	46.0%	7.0%	72.7%	54.0%	83.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	43.1%	9.8%	81.8%	—	80.9%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	24.5%	12.2%	57.2%	23.4%	52.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	17.2%	4.1%	41.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	13.4%	6.1%	48.4%	30.3%	65.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	14.1%	4.1%	32.4%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	70.2°F	3.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	68.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	66.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 02:00	Pending
ICON	11%	59.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗