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KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 19 · 06:54 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
EPS
98%
HRES
91%
AIFS
74%
ICON
11%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u
VS
ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · ICON −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 73.7% · 2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00AIFS Single: 73.7% · 2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00AIFS Single: 73.7% · 2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00AIFS Single: 73.7% · 2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00AIFS Single: 73.7% · 2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00AIFS Single: 73.7% · 2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.2% · 2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.2% · 2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.2% · 2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.2% · 2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.2% · 2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.2% · 2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00ICON: 31.6% · 2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00ICON: 31.6% · 2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:0009-19 03:0809-19 05:2409-19 06:54
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:0073.7%98.2%98.6%91.3%31.6%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:0073.7%98.2%98.6%91.3%31.6%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:0073.7%98.2%98.6%91.3%11.0%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:0073.7%98.2%98.6%91.3%11.0%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:0073.7%98.2%98.6%91.3%11.0%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:0073.7%98.2%98.6%91.3%11.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%71.2°F3.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble98%70.2°F3.2°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES91%68.6°F3.8°F2026-09-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single74%66.1°F4.1°F2026-09-18 18:00Pending
National Blend63%65.0°F4.4°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%64.0°F2.2°F2026-09-19 02:00Pending
ICON11%59.3°F3.4°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗