KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

80%

56%

15%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · ICON −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	99.4%	—	87.9%	72.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	85.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	92.7%	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	17.6%	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	95.5%	38.9%	—	67.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	67.0%	91.0%	—	81.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	97.2%	—	77.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	99.8%	87.3%	—	89.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	61.5%	—	81.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	50.0%	19.0%	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	60.4%	14.6%	76.6%	—	73.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	57.1%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	50.9%	6.3%	87.1%	—	74.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	24.6%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	25.5%	1.5%	86.4%	—	77.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	44.0%	3.4%	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	51.0%	6.4%	95.8%	—	79.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	45.8%	4.0%	—	—	81.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	54.4%	1.5%	71.8%	—	80.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	45.5%	1.7%	5.4%	—	81.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	32.0%	1.4%	65.9%	17.5%	84.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	34.7%	1.4%	37.0%	—	74.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	29.8%	2.3%	45.0%	22.7%	68.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	24.8%	3.7%	30.2%	—	65.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	22.0%	1.6%	47.3%	28.4%	61.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	19.1%	2.3%	58.3%	—	56.9%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	7.8%	2.9%	29.3%	7.3%	25.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	4.4%	0.6%	16.2%	—	22.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	2.9%	1.0%	20.3%	9.6%	34.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.8%	0.5%	9.9%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	70.2°F	3.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	68.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	66.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	15%	61.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗