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KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
EPS
93%
HRES
80%
AIFS
56%
ICON
15%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u
VS
ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · ICON −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-18T15:07:10+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T15:07:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T15:07:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.8% · 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T15:07:10+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00IFS HRES: 79.6% · 2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00IFS HRES: 79.6% · 2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00IFS HRES: 79.6% · 2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00IFS HRES: 79.6% · 2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00IFS HRES: 79.6% · 2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 79.6% · 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-09-18T15:07:10+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:0009-18 15:0709-18 21:0809-19 02:23
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-18T15:07:10+00:0062.4%93.3%94.8%86.9%19.1%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:0062.4%93.3%94.8%86.9%19.1%
2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:0062.4%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:0062.4%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:0062.4%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:0062.4%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:0058.7%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:0058.7%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:0058.7%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:0058.7%93.3%94.8%86.9%14.8%
2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:0058.7%93.3%94.8%79.6%14.8%
2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:0058.7%92.8%94.8%79.6%14.8%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:0058.7%92.8%94.8%79.6%14.8%
2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:0058.7%92.8%94.8%79.6%14.8%
2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:0055.8%92.8%94.8%79.6%14.8%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:0055.8%92.8%94.8%79.6%14.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 295%71.2°F3.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble93%70.2°F3.2°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES80%68.6°F3.8°F2026-09-18 12:00Pending
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.1°F2026-09-18 14:00Pending
AIFS Single56%66.1°F4.1°F2026-09-18 18:00Pending
National Blend54%66.0°F5.5°F2026-09-18 06:00Pending
ICON15%61.8°F3.5°F2026-09-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗