KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

80%

72%

43%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.4¢Risks 46.45u

ICONNO 53.6¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.55u · ICON −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	98.6%	—	80.7%	62.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	87.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	10.2%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	91.0%	26.3%	—	54.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	52.9%	83.5%	—	69.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	93.7%	—	64.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	99.4%	77.0%	—	80.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	45.0%	—	67.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	33.4%	9.5%	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	43.0%	6.8%	61.3%	—	57.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	39.3%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	33.0%	2.3%	74.9%	—	57.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	12.2%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	12.6%	0.4%	72.9%	—	60.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	25.7%	1.0%	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	31.2%	2.1%	88.7%	—	62.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	26.2%	1.1%	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	33.1%	0.3%	51.1%	—	61.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	24.9%	0.4%	1.5%	—	62.2%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	14.7%	0.3%	43.0%	6.5%	66.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	16.0%	0.2%	17.5%	—	52.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	12.4%	0.4%	22.7%	8.5%	43.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	9.2%	0.8%	12.2%	—	39.8%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	7.4%	0.2%	23.0%	10.7%	35.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.8%	0.4%	31.2%	—	30.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.6%	0.4%	10.2%	1.5%	8.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.7%	0.1%	4.1%	—	6.5%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	5.2%	1.8%	11.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	0.0%	1.7%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.2°F	3.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	69.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	66.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	8%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗