KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

80%

72%

43%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.4¢Risks 46.45u

ICONNO 53.6¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.55u · ICON −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:43+00:00	37.0%	89.2%	85.4%	70.2%	12.3%
2026-09-18T03:48:04+00:00	37.0%	89.2%	85.4%	70.2%	12.3%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	37.0%	89.2%	85.4%	70.2%	7.5%
2026-09-18T05:18:14+00:00	37.0%	89.2%	85.4%	70.2%	7.5%
2026-09-18T06:03:19+00:00	37.0%	89.2%	85.4%	70.2%	7.5%
2026-09-18T06:48:27+00:00	37.0%	89.2%	85.4%	70.2%	7.5%
2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00	40.4%	89.2%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	40.4%	89.2%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T09:04:15+00:00	40.4%	89.2%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T09:49:20+00:00	40.4%	89.2%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T10:34:39+00:00	40.4%	89.2%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T11:20:05+00:00	40.4%	80.0%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	40.4%	80.0%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T12:50:20+00:00	40.4%	80.0%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T13:35:26+00:00	43.2%	80.0%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	43.2%	80.0%	85.4%	72.1%	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.2°F	3.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	69.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	66.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	8%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗