KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

56%

41%

19%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

ICONNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.40u · ICON −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	97.9%	—	76.3%	56.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	83.2%	—	—	62.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	7.5%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	87.8%	20.9%	—	47.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	45.6%	78.5%	—	62.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	91.0%	—	56.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	99.0%	70.5%	—	74.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	36.9%	—	59.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	26.0%	6.4%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	34.6%	4.3%	52.6%	—	48.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	31.0%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	25.1%	1.3%	67.0%	—	48.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	8.1%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	8.2%	0.2%	64.3%	—	51.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	18.3%	0.5%	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	22.7%	1.1%	83.0%	—	52.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	18.3%	0.5%	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	23.8%	0.1%	40.3%	—	51.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	16.8%	0.1%	0.7%	—	51.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	9.0%	0.1%	32.0%	3.5%	55.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	9.7%	0.1%	10.8%	—	40.5%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	7.1%	0.2%	14.4%	4.6%	32.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.9%	0.3%	6.8%	—	28.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.7%	0.1%	14.1%	5.7%	24.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.7%	0.1%	20.1%	—	19.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%	5.1%	0.5%	4.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	1.7%	—	2.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	2.2%	0.6%	5.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%	—	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	71.3°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	70.0°F	6.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	67.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 16 · 15:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗