KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

56%

41%

19%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

ICONNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.40u · ICON −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00	42.0%	75.9%	82.4%	63.0%	8.7%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00	42.0%	75.9%	82.4%	61.2%	26.0%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	42.0%	75.9%	81.6%	61.2%	26.0%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00	42.0%	75.9%	81.6%	61.2%	26.0%
2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00	42.0%	75.9%	81.6%	61.2%	26.0%
2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00	42.0%	75.9%	81.6%	61.2%	26.0%
2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00	39.3%	75.9%	81.6%	52.3%	26.0%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	39.3%	75.9%	81.6%	52.3%	26.0%
2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00	39.3%	75.9%	81.6%	52.3%	26.0%
2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00	39.3%	75.9%	81.6%	52.3%	26.0%
2026-09-16T23:11:19+00:00	39.3%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	39.3%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-17T00:41:34+00:00	39.3%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-17T01:26:50+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-17T02:12:07+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-17T02:57:18+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-17T03:42:33+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-17T04:27:41+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	76.1%	52.6%	26.0%
2026-09-17T05:12:47+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	80.2%	52.6%	19.0%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	80.2%	52.6%	19.0%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	80.2%	52.6%	19.0%
2026-09-17T07:28:06+00:00	43.7%	77.6%	80.2%	52.6%	19.0%
2026-09-17T08:13:11+00:00	41.6%	77.6%	80.2%	52.6%	19.0%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	41.6%	77.6%	80.2%	52.6%	19.0%
2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00	41.6%	77.6%	80.2%	52.6%	19.0%
2026-09-17T10:28:40+00:00	41.6%	77.6%	80.2%	55.8%	19.0%
2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00	41.6%	80.2%	77.9%	55.8%	19.0%
2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00	41.6%	80.2%	77.9%	55.8%	19.0%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	41.6%	80.2%	77.9%	55.8%	19.0%
2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00	41.6%	80.2%	77.9%	55.8%	19.0%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	40.6%	80.2%	77.9%	55.8%	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	71.3°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	70.0°F	6.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	67.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 16 · 15:40 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗