KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

65%

56%

49%

14%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

AIFSNO 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.30u · AIFS −47.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	80.8%	65.9%	65.3%	57.1%	20.7%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	80.8%	65.9%	65.3%	57.1%	20.7%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	80.8%	65.9%	65.3%	57.1%	20.7%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	80.8%	65.9%	65.3%	57.1%	20.7%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	80.8%	65.9%	65.3%	57.1%	20.7%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	62.1%	66.8%	63.2%	53.9%	69.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	62.1%	66.8%	63.2%	53.9%	69.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	62.1%	66.8%	63.2%	53.9%	69.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	62.1%	66.8%	63.2%	53.9%	69.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	62.1%	66.8%	63.2%	53.9%	69.8%
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00	46.3%	66.8%	63.2%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	46.3%	66.8%	63.2%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	46.3%	66.8%	63.2%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00	46.3%	66.8%	63.2%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00	46.3%	66.8%	63.2%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00	46.3%	61.7%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00	46.3%	61.7%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	46.3%	61.7%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00	67.3%	61.7%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	66.6%	61.7%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	66.6%	61.9%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00	66.6%	61.9%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00	66.6%	61.9%	74.9%	72.1%	55.9%
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00	56.7%	59.7%	75.6%	61.3%	55.9%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	56.7%	59.7%	75.6%	61.3%	55.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	56.7%	59.7%	79.0%	61.3%	55.9%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	56.7%	59.7%	79.0%	61.3%	55.9%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	56.7%	59.7%	79.0%	61.3%	55.9%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	67.0%	59.7%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	67.0%	59.7%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	67.0%	59.7%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	67.0%	59.7%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	67.0%	67.5%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	67.0%	67.5%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	67.0%	67.5%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	67.0%	67.5%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	30.1%	67.5%	79.0%	78.5%	32.0%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	30.1%	67.5%	79.0%	78.5%	32.1%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00	30.1%	67.3%	79.0%	78.5%	32.1%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	30.1%	67.3%	79.0%	78.5%	32.1%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00	30.1%	67.3%	79.0%	78.5%	32.1%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	30.1%	67.3%	63.2%	78.5%	32.1%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00	30.1%	67.3%	63.2%	78.5%	32.1%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	30.1%	67.3%	63.2%	78.5%	32.1%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00	30.8%	67.3%	63.2%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	30.8%	67.3%	63.2%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00	30.8%	67.3%	63.2%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00	30.8%	67.3%	63.2%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	30.8%	65.1%	55.8%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00	30.8%	65.1%	55.8%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00	30.8%	65.1%	55.8%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	30.8%	65.1%	55.8%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00	13.5%	65.1%	55.8%	49.3%	91.9%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	13.5%	65.1%	55.8%	49.3%	91.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	80.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	75.1°F	6.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	73.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	72.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	71.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	67.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗