KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 15 · 02:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

65%

56%

49%

14%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

AIFSNO 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.30u · AIFS −47.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	92.4%	—	54.2%	32.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	62.2%	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	67.7%	6.5%	—	21.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	19.9%	52.2%	—	34.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	71.7%	—	27.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	93.6%	39.7%	—	44.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	12.0%	—	27.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	6.7%	0.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	10.1%	0.5%	20.8%	—	17.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	5.5%	0.1%	31.4%	—	16.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.9%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.9%	0.0%	27.1%	—	17.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.8%	0.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.8%	0.0%	46.9%	—	16.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.5%	0.0%	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.5%	0.0%	9.0%	—	14.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	5.1%	0.1%	15.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.7%	—	7.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	1.0%	0.2%	4.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	—	3.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.8%	0.2%	2.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.3%	—	1.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	80.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	75.1°F	6.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	73.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	72.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	71.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	67.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗