KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

59%

55%

55%

47%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 56.8¢Risks 28.40u

HRESNO 43.2¢Risks 21.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +21.60u · HRES −21.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	89.9%	—	48.2%	27.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	55.8%	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	61.1%	4.5%	—	17.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	15.2%	44.9%	—	27.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	64.9%	—	21.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	90.7%	32.3%	—	36.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	8.3%	—	21.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.3%	0.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.8%	0.2%	15.1%	—	12.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.4%	0.0%	23.7%	—	11.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%	19.7%	—	11.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.6%	0.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.1%	0.0%	36.9%	—	10.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.3%	0.0%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	0.0%	5.3%	—	9.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	2.7%	0.1%	9.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	—	4.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	2.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	77.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	74.5°F	4.6°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.4°F	6.9°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	74.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	74.1°F	4.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	73.1°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 12 · 11:34 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗