KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

59%

55%

55%

47%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 56.8¢Risks 28.40u

HRESNO 43.2¢Risks 21.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +21.60u · HRES −21.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	75.4%	51.7%	47.5%	50.6%	17.9%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	75.4%	51.7%	47.5%	50.6%	17.9%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	75.4%	51.7%	47.5%	50.6%	17.9%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	80.3%	51.7%	47.5%	50.6%	17.9%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	80.3%	51.7%	47.5%	50.5%	18.0%
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	80.3%	56.0%	47.5%	50.6%	18.0%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	80.3%	56.0%	47.5%	50.6%	18.0%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	80.3%	56.0%	47.5%	50.6%	18.0%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	80.3%	56.0%	53.3%	50.6%	18.0%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	80.3%	56.0%	53.3%	50.6%	18.0%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	80.3%	56.0%	53.3%	50.6%	18.0%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	55.0%	56.0%	53.3%	50.6%	66.2%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	55.0%	56.0%	53.3%	50.6%	66.2%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	55.0%	56.0%	53.3%	50.6%	66.2%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	55.0%	56.0%	53.3%	50.6%	66.2%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	55.0%	56.0%	53.3%	47.4%	66.2%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	55.0%	58.6%	55.0%	47.4%	66.2%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	55.0%	58.6%	55.0%	47.4%	66.2%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	55.0%	58.6%	55.0%	47.4%	66.2%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	55.0%	58.6%	55.0%	47.4%	66.2%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	55.0%	58.6%	55.0%	47.4%	66.2%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	55.0%	58.6%	55.0%	47.4%	66.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	77.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	74.5°F	4.6°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.4°F	6.9°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	74.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	74.1°F	4.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	73.1°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 12 · 11:34 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗