KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

26%

10%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.55u

AIFSNO 78.5¢Risks 78.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.45u · AIFS −78.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	87.0%	—	42.2%	22.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	49.4%	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	54.2%	3.1%	—	13.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	11.3%	37.8%	—	22.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	57.6%	—	16.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	86.9%	25.5%	—	29.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	5.6%	—	15.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.7%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.3%	0.1%	10.5%	—	8.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.0%	0.0%	17.2%	—	7.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	13.6%	—	7.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	0.0%	27.6%	—	6.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	2.9%	—	5.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%	5.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	2.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	70.7°F	7.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	67.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 13 · 17:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗