KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.0¢Risks 22.00u

AIFSNO 78.0¢Risks 78.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.00u · AIFS −78.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	52.4%	—	10.3%	3.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	12.3%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	13.0%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.6%	5.5%	—	2.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	12.5%	—	1.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	39.0%	2.0%	—	2.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	0.1%	—	0.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	—	0.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	80.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	75.1°F	6.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	73.7°F	7.3°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	72.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	67.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗