KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.0¢Risks 22.00u

AIFSNO 78.0¢Risks 78.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.00u · AIFS −78.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T07:48:31+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	8.4%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	8.4%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	8.4%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	8.4%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T10:49:00+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	8.4%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T11:34:07+00:00	22.3%	4.5%	4.1%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T12:19:16+00:00	22.3%	4.5%	4.1%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	22.3%	4.5%	4.1%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T13:49:30+00:00	27.5%	4.5%	4.1%	9.9%	4.2%
2026-09-12T14:35:00+00:00	27.5%	4.7%	4.1%	14.0%	4.2%
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	4.1%	10.0%	4.2%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	4.1%	10.0%	4.2%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	4.1%	10.0%	4.2%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	5.5%	10.0%	4.2%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	5.5%	10.0%	4.2%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	27.5%	5.6%	5.5%	10.0%	4.2%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	9.3%	5.6%	5.5%	10.0%	34.6%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	9.3%	5.6%	5.5%	10.0%	34.6%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	9.3%	5.6%	5.5%	10.0%	34.6%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	9.3%	5.6%	5.5%	10.0%	34.6%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	9.3%	5.6%	5.5%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	9.3%	6.4%	6.0%	8.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00	3.8%	6.4%	6.0%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	3.8%	6.4%	6.0%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	3.8%	6.4%	6.0%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00	3.8%	6.4%	6.0%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00	3.8%	6.4%	6.0%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00	3.8%	10.0%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00	3.8%	10.0%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	3.8%	10.0%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00	10.9%	10.0%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	10.6%	10.0%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	10.6%	9.6%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00	10.6%	9.6%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00	10.6%	9.6%	8.9%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	10.6%	9.6%	5.1%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00	10.6%	9.6%	5.1%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	10.6%	9.6%	5.1%	22.2%	11.8%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00	6.8%	9.6%	5.1%	14.3%	11.8%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	6.8%	9.6%	5.1%	14.3%	11.8%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00	6.8%	9.6%	5.1%	14.3%	11.8%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	6.8%	9.6%	5.1%	14.3%	11.8%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00	6.8%	9.1%	9.3%	14.3%	11.8%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	6.8%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00	6.8%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	6.8%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	9.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	11.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	11.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	6.5%	9.1%	11.3%	14.2%	11.8%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	8.6%	9.1%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	8.6%	9.1%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	8.6%	9.1%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	8.6%	9.1%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	8.6%	18.2%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	8.6%	18.2%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	8.6%	18.2%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	8.6%	18.2%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	1.0%	18.2%	11.3%	22.6%	2.1%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	1.0%	18.2%	11.4%	22.6%	2.2%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	11.4%	22.6%	2.2%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	11.4%	22.6%	2.2%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	11.4%	22.6%	2.2%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	3.3%	22.6%	2.2%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	3.3%	22.6%	2.2%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	3.3%	22.6%	2.2%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	3.3%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	3.3%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	3.3%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00	1.0%	18.5%	3.3%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	1.0%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00	1.0%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00	1.0%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	1.0%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	2.1%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	1.6%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	1.6%	6.0%	43.8%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00	0.2%	17.0%	1.6%	6.0%	43.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	80.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	75.1°F	6.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	73.7°F	7.3°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	72.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	67.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗