KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 20 · 07:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

73%

67%

64%

30%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.60u · ICON −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	45.5%	48.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	69.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	79.3%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	48.6%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	7.4%	—	54.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	6.4%	57.3%	—	53.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	71.1%	—	42.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	10.8%	3.3%	73.2%	—	37.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	47.5%	9.7%	72.1%	—	32.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	9.5%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	8.0%	17.8%	77.2%	—	38.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	31.0%	60.7%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	11.9%	72.6%	80.4%	—	51.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	42.5%	36.1%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	84.7%	71.3%	76.8%	—	52.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	65.6%	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	78.8%	72.4%	75.7%	—	54.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	74.7%	67.4%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	73.6%	73.6%	80.2%	—	44.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	60.0%	67.5%	1.7%	—	40.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	70.0%	59.2%	80.1%	46.5%	45.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	70.7%	7.0%	73.7%	—	38.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	62.3%	36.5%	63.4%	55.0%	38.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	57.7%	51.3%	69.8%	—	44.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	47.3%	60.6%	68.1%	43.3%	42.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	43.1%	59.7%	66.2%	—	36.3%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	57.2%	61.4%	72.0%	48.5%	34.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	60.5%	38.1%	60.5%	—	28.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	39.1%	43.7%	45.3%	36.1%	17.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	22.8%	20.3%	22.8%	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	70.2°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	69.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	66.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗