KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 20 · 07:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

73%

67%

64%

30%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.60u · ICON −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00	73.7%	92.1%	79.4%	66.3%	88.3%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	73.7%	92.7%	79.4%	66.3%	88.3%
2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00	73.7%	92.7%	79.4%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	73.7%	92.7%	80.2%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00	73.7%	92.7%	80.2%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00	73.7%	92.7%	80.2%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00	76.6%	92.7%	80.2%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	76.6%	92.7%	80.2%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	76.6%	92.7%	80.2%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	76.6%	92.7%	80.2%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	76.6%	92.7%	80.2%	68.7%	81.7%
2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00	76.6%	93.7%	81.0%	68.7%	82.4%
2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00	76.6%	93.7%	81.0%	68.7%	82.4%
2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00	76.6%	93.7%	81.0%	68.7%	82.4%
2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00	68.3%	93.7%	81.0%	68.7%	82.4%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	68.3%	93.7%	81.0%	68.7%	82.4%
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00	64.8%	87.3%	81.0%	59.5%	64.4%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00	64.8%	87.3%	81.0%	59.5%	64.4%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	64.8%	87.3%	81.0%	59.5%	45.5%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	64.8%	87.3%	81.0%	59.5%	45.5%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00	64.8%	87.3%	81.0%	59.5%	45.5%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00	64.8%	87.3%	81.0%	59.5%	45.5%
2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00	64.3%	87.3%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	64.3%	87.3%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	64.3%	87.3%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	64.3%	87.3%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	64.3%	87.3%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T11:25:55+00:00	64.3%	81.1%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	64.3%	81.1%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	64.3%	81.1%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	71.3%	81.1%	81.0%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	71.3%	81.0%	80.9%	63.6%	45.5%
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00	67.0%	72.7%	80.9%	63.6%	32.5%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00	67.0%	72.7%	80.9%	63.6%	32.5%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	67.0%	72.7%	80.9%	63.6%	29.9%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00	67.0%	72.7%	80.9%	63.6%	29.9%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	67.0%	72.7%	80.9%	63.6%	29.9%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	67.0%	72.7%	80.9%	63.6%	29.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	70.2°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	69.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	69.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	66.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗