KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

63%

46%

42%

40%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

HRESNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.35u · HRES −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	34.5%	37.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	68.8%	—	—	37.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	35.5%	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	3.6%	—	40.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	2.9%	42.7%	—	39.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	56.8%	—	28.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	5.1%	1.2%	58.7%	—	23.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	31.5%	4.3%	56.6%	—	18.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	4.1%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	3.2%	8.6%	62.1%	—	23.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	17.2%	42.9%	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	5.0%	55.5%	65.3%	—	33.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	25.3%	20.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	70.4%	52.9%	59.6%	—	33.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	46.0%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	61.2%	53.1%	57.2%	—	34.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	55.3%	46.8%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	53.3%	53.3%	61.8%	—	24.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	37.8%	45.5%	0.4%	—	20.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	47.7%	36.3%	60.4%	25.1%	24.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	47.6%	1.9%	51.2%	—	18.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	37.7%	16.6%	38.9%	30.9%	18.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	32.5%	26.9%	44.9%	—	21.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	23.0%	34.3%	42.0%	20.0%	19.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	19.1%	32.5%	39.0%	—	14.7%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	29.3%	33.1%	44.2%	22.2%	13.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	31.1%	14.4%	31.1%	—	9.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	14.2%	17.1%	18.1%	12.5%	4.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.8%	4.9%	5.8%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	65%	71.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	71.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	70.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗